* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 44 48 51 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 44 48 51 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 55 55 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 21 20 18 15 10 10 20 41 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 3 3 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 336 343 352 6 358 354 284 218 206 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.0 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 156 152 148 140 136 126 99 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 133 132 130 127 123 119 118 109 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 64 63 65 69 68 69 65 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 50 49 51 40 54 87 126 94 112 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 0 -6 -2 -7 8 31 36 81 75 125 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 2 15 39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 861 880 900 907 864 766 698 560 369 216 131 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.5 30.7 32.7 35.6 39.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.3 70.6 71.0 71.3 72.1 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.5 73.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 8 13 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 50 51 54 58 54 51 28 20 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)