* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 37 29 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 31 30 28 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 30 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 29 32 37 46 48 61 78 92 108 105 103 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 0 -1 -4 3 -4 -6 -10 -9 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 228 210 211 215 211 226 222 220 206 209 202 207 206 SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.2 26.1 24.9 23.5 22.5 19.6 16.0 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 152 145 141 130 117 115 104 95 90 79 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 138 131 124 114 101 98 89 82 78 72 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 72 71 71 70 63 57 53 48 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 20 31 58 110 131 138 145 118 141 100 43 200 MB DIV 76 68 49 51 64 55 50 60 90 60 104 79 100 700-850 TADV 7 11 12 10 3 -2 -11 5 9 15 54 86 55 LAND (KM) 371 245 90 -23 -145 -164 -128 -185 -158 -200 -300 -507 -563 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 31.4 33.3 34.7 36.3 38.3 40.4 42.9 46.2 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 85.6 85.2 84.6 84.1 82.0 79.7 78.1 77.2 76.7 75.9 75.5 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 13 11 10 11 12 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 37 18 21 27 11 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 15 CX,CY: 6/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -9. -21. -35. -48. -59. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 7. -1. -13. -27. -43. -61. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/28/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED