* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 20 26 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 20 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 19 17 16 15 15 16 17 19 20 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 22 21 19 17 21 20 22 27 28 23 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 251 256 256 253 257 234 246 248 248 243 255 242 292 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 154 153 155 157 159 159 161 162 162 164 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 65 65 63 64 65 63 60 60 69 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 46 55 57 57 72 81 109 123 153 176 188 203 200 MB DIV 22 44 62 45 38 55 37 53 50 80 89 106 113 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 458 503 552 591 632 730 823 928 1004 1072 1117 1193 1287 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.7 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.5 158.1 158.7 159.3 159.8 160.8 161.8 162.8 163.7 164.5 165.0 165.5 166.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 56 55 51 46 42 37 37 37 39 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 855 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##