* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 71 67 53 44 36 31 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 71 67 53 44 36 31 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 75 74 70 61 54 49 45 40 35 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 20 27 27 24 29 25 28 19 17 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 1 2 2 2 5 7 13 7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 278 259 240 241 242 232 235 229 248 257 268 299 313 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 166 167 169 169 168 166 165 164 162 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 59 57 59 62 62 61 66 74 77 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 13 12 5 4 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 24 18 13 25 12 -12 -26 -35 -23 13 35 200 MB DIV 19 31 47 59 63 49 39 29 34 44 68 69 108 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 2 -4 3 -7 5 LAND (KM) 150 124 98 75 52 47 44 77 147 176 178 218 303 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.2 102.0 101.8 101.7 101.9 102.5 103.7 104.9 105.7 105.9 106.7 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 1 2 4 6 5 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 31 31 30 25 29 30 30 32 34 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -12. -14. -16. -14. -15. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -3. -17. -26. -34. -39. -46. -54. -56. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##