* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 51 57 63 65 59 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 51 57 63 65 59 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 52 63 69 63 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 15 12 16 7 4 11 21 28 31 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 5 10 11 6 SHEAR DIR 343 356 3 18 18 13 352 294 218 209 196 195 186 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.9 26.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 161 159 155 151 144 136 136 125 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 137 136 133 129 126 122 115 116 108 84 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 62 65 64 67 66 62 58 49 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 14 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 54 41 31 33 27 21 40 64 111 116 137 95 65 200 MB DIV 8 0 8 4 0 10 36 41 67 57 56 47 91 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 20 53 85 19 LAND (KM) 782 783 788 780 770 723 668 663 610 468 311 223 113 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.6 29.8 31.3 33.2 35.9 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.7 71.2 71.7 72.2 72.8 73.4 73.6 73.8 73.7 73.7 73.4 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 7 8 12 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 60 48 44 46 50 57 61 54 31 20 17 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 33. 35. 29. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED