* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 51 44 34 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 36 32 29 28 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 37 32 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 27 27 28 37 47 59 89 101 110 96 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 -14 -10 -16 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 203 206 205 210 219 236 218 219 203 199 195 191 196 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.2 24.3 22.7 20.5 19.3 15.5 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 147 141 128 123 116 100 91 81 78 71 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 131 125 112 106 99 87 79 73 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 68 68 67 69 68 66 58 50 47 56 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 18 35 61 97 118 147 159 139 149 140 124 74 200 MB DIV 59 47 53 56 48 42 66 75 87 73 79 99 97 700-850 TADV 11 8 3 -3 -9 -18 -21 -17 1 22 71 35 -39 LAND (KM) 285 186 86 -62 -96 -42 -95 -152 -225 -391 -567 -823 -772 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.8 29.1 30.3 31.4 33.1 34.9 37.1 39.5 41.8 44.2 47.1 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 84.7 84.1 83.3 82.4 80.2 78.4 77.7 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.5 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 18 21 21 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -8. -20. -33. -46. -56. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 9. -1. -15. -30. -45. -59. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)