* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 28 27 25 26 27 30 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 28 27 25 26 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 21 25 19 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 257 255 260 258 240 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 155 156 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 63 63 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 64 63 59 81 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 45 39 39 52 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 488 537 591 641 693 807 924 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.2 14.9 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.1 159.8 160.4 161.0 162.1 163.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 51 50 49 50 48 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 855 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##