* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 63 47 38 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 63 47 38 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 73 70 65 54 47 42 37 34 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 28 31 26 26 29 26 28 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -1 1 4 3 6 3 11 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 254 245 242 233 227 234 248 256 255 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 167 168 170 170 167 163 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 12 8 11 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 56 55 62 64 68 66 70 75 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 10 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 14 17 21 18 -8 -20 -20 -28 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 26 43 60 53 53 33 28 34 36 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 90 64 51 37 53 39 107 171 206 223 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.6 101.6 102.0 103.0 104.3 105.6 106.3 106.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 3 6 6 5 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 31 30 30 22 29 30 30 31 40 44 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -18. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -7. -23. -32. -39. -44. -48. -52. -56. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##