* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 50 54 58 60 58 55 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 50 54 58 60 58 55 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 53 61 68 70 65 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 16 17 15 9 7 13 29 31 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 6 0 SHEAR DIR 351 354 12 4 12 12 353 265 204 179 182 164 160 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.8 26.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 163 161 158 154 149 139 135 118 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 138 138 137 135 131 129 127 120 117 102 82 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 64 64 67 66 68 58 49 40 52 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 24 21 19 8 27 60 100 147 165 140 161 131 200 MB DIV -7 6 -5 -8 2 37 18 60 87 70 77 104 57 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 1 7 17 4 25 LAND (KM) 758 766 770 758 746 702 653 630 647 496 276 179 40 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 28.0 29.0 30.9 33.6 36.4 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.9 71.4 71.8 72.3 73.0 73.5 73.8 73.9 73.9 73.8 73.8 74.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 4 8 11 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 57 46 44 46 50 56 59 59 42 20 14 39 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 23. 20. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)