* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 39 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 27 27 31 35 29 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 26 29 30 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 32 34 36 41 54 71 93 106 100 95 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 0 2 0 4 -2 -1 -11 -15 -17 -31 -10 SHEAR DIR 205 209 220 219 224 220 216 203 198 190 192 187 193 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.8 25.3 23.7 22.6 20.6 19.7 17.9 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 134 126 125 123 108 96 89 81 78 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 118 111 109 105 93 83 78 72 70 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -54.1 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 70 69 69 65 61 52 44 41 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 32 61 110 131 145 133 137 119 129 110 67 35 200 MB DIV 34 44 57 53 46 66 76 125 102 95 51 24 37 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 -5 -5 -18 -16 29 34 31 56 69 31 LAND (KM) 145 18 -120 -32 14 14 -61 -77 -191 -372 -556 -759 -937 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.5 30.6 31.5 32.3 33.8 35.8 38.1 40.1 41.7 43.5 45.2 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 83.5 82.8 81.6 80.5 78.2 76.7 76.3 77.0 78.2 79.5 80.9 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 7 21 14 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 14 CX,CY: 7/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -11. -25. -41. -53. -64. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 2. -8. -21. -35. -47. -61. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED