* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 39 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 39 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 49 44 41 35 31 27 25 23 22 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 19 26 19 26 24 20 13 8 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 5 5 1 8 5 2 0 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 241 230 229 240 233 229 234 272 298 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 167 168 168 167 169 171 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 65 65 68 69 70 74 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 26 26 23 2 2 -16 -34 -42 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 57 84 56 20 20 25 29 26 65 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 2 -2 3 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 127 124 104 85 77 111 102 99 191 420 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.6 101.5 101.8 102.6 103.0 103.4 105.2 108.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 1 3 3 2 5 12 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 33 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 53 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 16. 15. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -26. -36. -43. -49. -49. -48. -49. -51. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##