* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 51 55 62 68 74 75 72 67 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 51 55 62 68 74 75 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 50 54 61 70 81 84 79 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 18 17 14 7 6 4 13 18 27 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -1 4 8 5 SHEAR DIR 354 14 12 16 9 1 11 311 302 301 288 218 183 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 162 162 159 156 150 141 136 130 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 137 137 136 135 133 130 128 122 116 109 95 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 65 68 66 63 59 48 42 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 18 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 19 8 18 50 71 117 141 179 183 207 161 200 MB DIV 11 3 -8 3 9 14 47 75 85 86 109 55 54 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 14 50 55 21 LAND (KM) 745 750 746 731 716 718 683 679 712 557 389 299 226 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.3 28.0 29.0 30.8 33.2 35.4 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.1 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.7 73.2 73.3 73.2 72.9 72.6 72.6 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 7 11 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 46 44 46 50 54 58 61 52 28 21 14 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 22. 28. 34. 35. 32. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)