* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 53 61 66 69 70 70 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 53 61 66 69 70 70 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 50 55 58 58 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 12 11 12 21 32 27 22 34 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 18 351 347 334 320 293 276 249 254 280 302 277 274 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 169 168 167 169 165 160 155 148 138 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 149 147 147 142 145 141 137 135 130 119 111 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 56 55 56 59 62 59 56 62 63 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 7 10 13 17 17 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 20 14 24 29 32 43 58 58 70 100 106 200 MB DIV 13 9 4 17 26 27 26 17 23 34 37 58 52 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 6 15 5 8 41 LAND (KM) 1206 1159 1116 1091 1068 1066 1097 1225 1289 1321 1402 1296 1047 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.3 26.3 27.1 28.2 30.0 32.0 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.2 56.9 57.3 57.8 58.2 58.2 57.5 57.5 58.5 60.3 62.3 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 4 5 5 9 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 39 41 43 41 39 31 27 20 17 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 28. 36. 41. 44. 45. 45. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)