* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 39 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 30 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 34 38 42 51 61 90 97 108 100 77 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 -2 1 0 -11 -12 -20 -24 -22 -7 SHEAR DIR 215 226 221 220 224 216 208 205 204 202 198 200 204 SST (C) 28.7 27.8 27.1 26.9 26.8 25.9 24.1 22.6 20.9 20.1 19.8 18.8 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 135 127 124 123 113 99 89 81 78 77 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 120 111 108 106 96 85 78 72 69 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -54.0 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 66 63 60 55 51 45 45 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 57 96 101 112 124 118 104 105 76 35 -20 0 200 MB DIV 39 43 42 37 60 83 81 96 44 64 27 68 27 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -6 -15 -14 -14 24 11 20 26 15 8 LAND (KM) 36 -109 -48 -3 -17 -77 -144 -250 -405 -572 -737 -934 -999 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.4 31.5 32.4 33.3 35.2 37.4 39.5 41.0 42.2 43.2 43.8 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 82.6 81.8 80.6 79.5 77.8 77.5 78.2 79.3 80.6 82.2 84.5 86.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 12 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 14 CX,CY: 7/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. -1. -14. -30. -47. -59. -68. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 5. -4. -17. -31. -44. -54. -63. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)