* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 28 28 28 28 31 34 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 28 28 28 28 31 34 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 37 42 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 33 35 35 31 30 29 28 28 28 15 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 242 249 243 236 236 242 258 248 244 238 262 293 301 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 153 154 155 157 159 160 160 161 163 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 56 55 52 51 48 45 42 44 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 14 14 18 850 MB ENV VOR 74 72 71 84 95 99 116 147 153 160 186 151 144 200 MB DIV 38 39 62 47 47 48 44 28 19 21 35 34 31 700-850 TADV 3 0 -4 -8 -6 -4 0 1 1 3 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 620 640 662 674 685 739 826 978 1159 1355 1567 1759 1929 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.0 161.3 161.8 162.2 163.5 165.0 166.9 168.9 171.1 173.3 175.3 176.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 55 59 64 69 52 49 71 56 42 56 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 928 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -22. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##