* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 40 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 40 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 43 39 35 31 27 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 23 27 29 23 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 3 6 5 2 7 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 232 239 245 244 244 235 255 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 168 169 169 169 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 63 64 64 66 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 18 21 19 -3 -19 -30 -43 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 54 46 10 4 23 12 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 133 124 131 137 137 156 206 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.9 102.2 103.1 104.1 104.9 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 3 4 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 34 33 32 32 31 30 30 32 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -28. -36. -41. -45. -45. -46. -49. -51. -49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##