* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 69 71 75 78 82 85 85 81 75 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 69 71 75 78 82 85 85 81 75 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 69 73 75 77 79 82 88 97 101 93 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 20 18 14 7 5 6 4 8 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 1 1 1 5 0 0 1 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 6 8 12 15 24 21 14 17 46 275 250 250 244 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.5 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 163 161 160 163 163 145 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 141 141 139 138 134 133 140 145 129 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 64 66 65 68 65 66 57 38 32 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 15 21 36 43 66 83 98 124 166 196 153 200 MB DIV 8 5 10 16 8 10 37 73 86 57 65 6 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 7 12 28 37 3 LAND (KM) 689 683 673 652 629 581 553 539 564 682 611 447 495 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.7 27.2 30.1 32.6 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.2 71.6 72.1 72.5 73.1 73.8 73.9 73.5 73.2 73.1 72.4 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 4 11 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 42 45 50 61 68 64 66 56 42 21 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. 30. 26. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)