* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 53 60 64 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 53 60 64 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 42 48 52 54 57 62 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 16 17 16 16 15 32 21 10 25 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 7 352 331 325 335 293 260 250 235 261 300 309 298 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 169 168 167 167 169 168 162 157 149 140 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 149 144 141 139 147 145 140 137 131 121 112 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -53.1 -52.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 57 54 57 59 62 56 57 62 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 8 11 14 17 17 15 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 35 24 13 22 21 17 29 45 42 47 57 121 137 200 MB DIV 18 1 16 8 31 25 6 12 2 7 61 29 44 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 2 -1 3 5 6 12 3 24 31 LAND (KM) 1097 1068 1044 1030 1017 1012 1054 1223 1299 1313 1375 1368 1171 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.8 27.9 29.6 31.4 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.8 58.4 58.8 59.1 59.3 58.8 57.0 57.0 58.2 60.0 62.0 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 2 1 5 5 6 10 12 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 40 39 39 39 37 30 25 17 15 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 9. 8. 6. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 35. 39. 42. 43. 46. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)