* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 31 29 25 22 20 18 18 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 19 22 27 27 23 26 11 16 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 4 4 2 0 10 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 248 247 238 239 243 256 287 308 310 334 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 169 169 169 169 169 167 165 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 64 64 66 67 70 69 72 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 21 8 0 -22 -25 -43 -22 1 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 36 29 17 24 26 45 53 81 71 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 -2 0 -3 3 5 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 122 114 133 159 153 189 238 304 349 369 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.3 101.3 101.8 102.4 103.3 104.0 105.0 106.1 106.9 107.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 37 35 32 32 36 42 47 45 54 58 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -33. -32. -32. -32. -33. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##