* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 58 63 65 66 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 58 63 65 66 65 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 48 51 53 55 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 16 17 21 23 24 9 6 22 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 1 0 -1 -1 -4 2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 1 327 317 332 318 304 242 244 235 328 335 337 310 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 167 167 169 167 164 158 151 145 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 144 142 140 141 146 142 142 137 129 120 115 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 54 53 55 58 55 48 52 57 56 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 11 13 14 13 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 21 25 22 24 39 39 5 -22 -16 -45 -35 200 MB DIV 6 9 11 18 10 27 17 -16 -6 13 42 23 20 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 3 2 3 2 8 6 8 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 1092 1067 1044 1037 1031 1009 1081 1201 1214 1232 1298 1381 1435 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.6 29.0 30.1 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.0 58.5 58.7 58.9 59.1 58.1 57.3 58.0 59.1 60.4 61.1 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 1 2 5 4 6 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 39 38 38 39 38 31 26 20 19 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 33. 38. 40. 41. 40. 38. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/30/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)