* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 31 29 29 26 29 31 30 30 30 V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 31 29 29 26 29 31 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 34 30 27 25 25 26 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 24 25 26 26 22 17 14 6 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 4 4 0 2 1 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 242 231 228 227 240 251 274 278 255 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 169 170 170 168 166 165 164 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 8 10 8 10 7 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 64 63 67 66 68 71 73 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 6 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 13 10 -4 -23 -25 -10 0 -1 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 24 20 27 27 37 41 53 76 43 62 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 2 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 108 112 142 144 185 252 285 309 346 403 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.5 101.8 102.3 102.9 104.1 105.3 106.1 106.7 107.5 108.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 3 3 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 33 31 32 33 42 46 46 53 61 53 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -19. -16. -14. -15. -15. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##