* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 72 76 82 85 90 93 92 80 61 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 72 76 82 85 90 93 92 80 61 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 67 70 73 78 82 88 95 97 88 69 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 17 14 9 4 8 13 16 31 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 7 8 11 6 3 7 7 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 21 16 22 28 29 26 341 333 314 255 236 191 255 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 163 162 162 162 158 147 136 132 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 142 140 139 136 137 141 139 130 117 110 104 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.0 -49.9 -48.9 -48.6 -48.5 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 64 65 68 66 64 56 48 46 43 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 28 30 30 34 34 37 41 45 37 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 36 46 54 85 106 129 165 211 180 179 119 200 MB DIV 7 34 35 8 12 42 51 102 70 85 25 21 40 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 3 7 2 21 20 59 61 0 0 LAND (KM) 624 596 566 523 481 447 480 573 616 631 446 373 313 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.9 25.2 26.0 27.7 29.9 32.8 34.8 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.8 74.5 74.5 74.2 73.9 73.1 72.2 71.9 72.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 7 10 14 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 51 58 57 53 51 51 83 57 45 21 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 7. 10. 14. 17. 9. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 25. 30. 34. 32. 20. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 6( 10) 9( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)