* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 63 66 65 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 63 66 65 65 64 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 50 53 55 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 16 20 12 17 17 2 17 19 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 0 1 -1 -4 5 -3 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 305 327 320 307 276 263 246 262 323 323 318 317 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 167 167 166 165 159 152 145 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 142 140 140 140 140 140 137 129 118 117 119 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 55 53 53 55 48 49 57 58 57 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 7 8 12 15 15 14 12 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 21 22 17 27 33 19 -8 -21 -35 -5 -19 200 MB DIV 1 -2 13 7 8 22 2 -14 -13 52 0 35 8 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 7 6 2 8 9 11 6 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 1074 1067 1061 1059 1057 1058 1115 1156 1200 1282 1352 1338 1301 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.3 27.3 28.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.3 58.7 58.8 59.0 59.1 58.5 58.5 59.2 59.9 60.3 60.4 60.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 4 7 6 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 36 36 36 36 32 29 23 16 16 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 33. 38. 41. 40. 40. 39. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED