* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 19 21 22 20 11 7 9 16 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 4 1 2 1 0 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 242 232 234 244 250 271 262 232 223 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 170 170 169 168 166 165 163 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 64 64 65 66 69 72 73 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 3 -8 -16 -17 -6 5 1 5 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 33 31 28 25 32 37 59 57 44 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -1 -4 3 -6 0 1 1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 161 171 179 197 277 319 357 430 472 444 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.7 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.0 102.3 103.0 103.8 105.2 106.0 106.9 108.1 109.2 110.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 7 5 4 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 33 33 35 40 45 44 53 55 45 28 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -23. -20. -20. -22. -22. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##