* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 77 78 80 85 86 88 88 85 74 62 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 77 78 80 85 86 88 88 85 74 62 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 78 81 82 82 83 87 92 89 80 66 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 20 18 19 13 12 13 21 20 23 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 9 8 6 12 4 2 4 5 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 19 18 25 19 21 17 345 306 299 273 233 200 207 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.1 27.9 27.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 163 163 162 164 164 154 139 136 125 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 140 140 138 143 146 136 121 115 105 93 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.0 -48.7 -48.7 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 63 65 68 65 64 56 48 47 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 31 32 35 35 38 41 43 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 39 47 65 84 104 127 142 181 142 165 185 200 MB DIV 15 22 6 0 7 28 65 66 61 52 53 47 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 3 3 8 8 11 13 42 75 19 0 LAND (KM) 532 486 441 413 386 383 474 635 737 532 333 243 198 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.3 25.1 26.7 28.9 31.3 33.6 35.6 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.7 73.2 73.5 73.9 74.5 74.3 73.7 72.9 72.6 73.0 73.2 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 6 10 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 54 53 52 41 50 71 56 22 17 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 10. 13. 14. 8. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 15. 16. 18. 18. 15. 4. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 6( 14) 7( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 6( 7) 10( 16) 8( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)