* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 59 60 61 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 59 60 61 60 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 41 44 47 49 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 21 21 24 22 11 14 10 14 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 6 SHEAR DIR 301 309 291 277 270 247 250 194 141 266 333 319 310 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 167 165 161 158 154 148 140 136 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 142 141 140 135 133 131 126 117 111 110 107 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.0 -52.6 -51.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 54 53 53 46 39 39 45 51 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 14 17 16 14 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 30 39 50 59 49 22 -16 -15 -3 11 11 200 MB DIV 18 23 15 11 13 13 -3 -22 -32 18 -4 12 23 700-850 TADV 0 5 6 5 3 -3 6 5 3 3 5 2 10 LAND (KM) 1127 1153 1178 1216 1253 1350 1410 1428 1456 1505 1467 1434 1375 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.3 29.5 30.6 31.1 31.3 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.5 57.4 57.1 56.9 56.3 56.1 56.9 58.2 59.3 59.8 60.2 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 7 8 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 31 29 27 24 22 15 14 8 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 34. 35. 36. 35. 34. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)