* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 16 15 17 19 20 19 18 19 22 V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 16 15 17 19 20 19 18 19 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 20 18 17 16 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 16 15 12 12 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 2 -3 -1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 237 234 244 251 266 302 267 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 170 168 167 166 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 63 66 68 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -2 -10 -27 -40 -10 -14 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 16 24 38 28 15 53 67 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 200 206 234 269 345 383 390 412 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.3 17.0 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.8 103.3 103.9 104.6 105.8 106.7 107.7 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 40 42 42 41 44 48 60 51 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -13. -11. -10. -11. -12. -11. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##