* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 09/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 43 43 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 43 43 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 31 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 6 10 12 2 10 11 6 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -1 -6 -3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 357 7 34 31 27 48 183 218 229 212 216 207 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 156 157 156 155 156 156 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 73 69 71 70 69 64 60 55 53 49 48 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 59 65 63 68 53 63 63 63 44 31 39 200 MB DIV 87 87 94 96 83 74 4 4 -16 14 4 -1 10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1641 1644 1650 1657 1667 1653 1643 1667 1727 1826 1965 2111 2276 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.8 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.3 11.8 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.2 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.0 123.6 124.4 125.5 126.9 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 30 27 25 23 24 26 25 22 20 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 393 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. 26. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 09/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 09/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##