* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 83 84 87 89 92 92 77 62 52 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 83 84 87 89 92 92 77 62 52 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 83 85 85 84 85 91 96 90 73 57 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 7 7 16 20 28 12 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 11 9 11 16 7 0 4 -2 3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 12 17 15 18 10 1 303 288 246 240 197 247 255 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.0 27.1 24.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 162 162 163 162 160 148 138 127 103 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 140 139 138 141 141 141 131 121 109 87 78 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 7 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 63 62 63 65 64 62 56 52 56 62 74 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 31 31 33 34 39 42 33 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 38 45 49 72 82 94 125 148 198 183 133 79 107 200 MB DIV 38 14 17 42 25 36 93 72 77 48 71 26 75 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 4 6 4 13 3 32 56 16 14 18 LAND (KM) 475 437 400 387 376 434 547 595 641 419 226 122 20 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.8 25.9 27.5 29.7 32.4 35.5 37.8 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.3 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.6 74.6 74.1 73.3 73.0 73.4 73.9 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 5 7 10 13 14 14 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 52 45 25 50 74 57 43 21 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 2. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. 17. 17. 2. -13. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 9( 20) 9( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 5( 6) 7( 13) 7( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)