* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 09/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 60 63 62 60 59 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 60 63 62 60 59 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 45 47 49 49 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 18 18 21 13 11 3 24 24 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 2 2 -2 -2 4 7 -2 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 292 277 270 263 241 240 207 155 316 316 299 305 291 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 164 164 162 158 158 153 145 138 133 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 138 138 136 132 134 132 124 115 108 106 104 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 53 54 52 44 41 47 52 55 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 13 13 17 17 16 13 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 48 61 59 64 40 0 -21 -20 -4 -9 -3 200 MB DIV 31 20 8 0 13 19 -20 -13 -8 0 15 12 43 700-850 TADV 5 8 10 -5 1 6 7 13 4 10 8 12 16 LAND (KM) 1163 1182 1201 1228 1254 1301 1316 1325 1406 1394 1320 1273 1203 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.5 30.0 31.4 32.0 32.4 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.4 57.3 57.2 57.6 58.9 60.2 61.3 61.7 61.9 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 3 5 8 9 6 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 28 26 25 22 18 14 11 5 3 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 7. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 35. 38. 37. 36. 34. 31. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 09/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 09/30/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)