* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 18 16 15 16 17 19 19 18 18 19 21 V (KT) LAND 25 22 18 16 15 16 17 19 19 18 18 19 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 19 19 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 13 11 11 7 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 0 -3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 240 243 240 241 263 273 250 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.1 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 170 168 166 164 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 69 69 69 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -21 -35 -34 -16 -1 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 23 35 16 16 21 50 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 3 -2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 189 207 232 258 319 391 450 505 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.3 103.8 104.3 104.9 106.0 107.4 108.5 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 42 43 42 43 45 56 59 47 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##