* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 105 104 104 109 109 105 94 74 55 45 V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 105 104 104 109 109 105 94 74 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 100 108 111 111 109 106 108 110 104 85 61 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 15 10 9 3 9 12 24 30 26 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 9 17 16 13 -2 9 6 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 23 15 9 13 5 296 290 272 243 216 199 221 204 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.0 27.9 27.2 25.1 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 162 163 164 164 153 137 127 105 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 140 140 144 145 138 121 109 89 80 76 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.1 -49.7 -48.6 -48.4 -48.4 -48.8 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 66 66 66 61 53 43 52 61 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 31 31 31 36 38 40 41 30 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 67 83 84 115 148 205 229 137 148 176 195 200 MB DIV 12 15 42 49 34 63 75 104 54 67 57 54 34 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 3 4 9 7 18 58 64 40 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 410 378 343 337 334 432 561 609 401 155 24 -52 -48 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.8 26.3 28.7 31.8 34.5 36.7 37.9 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.4 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.7 74.5 74.2 74.1 74.6 75.6 76.1 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 7 10 14 15 12 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 56 51 28 50 89 41 21 23 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 10. 11. 11. 1. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 9. 9. 5. -6. -26. -45. -55. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 26( 58) 26( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 31 45( 62) 46( 80) 47( 89) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED