* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 56 60 58 55 50 47 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 56 60 58 55 50 47 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 44 46 47 48 47 46 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 24 27 29 23 15 15 18 23 17 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 4 3 5 6 4 7 SHEAR DIR 259 250 249 240 235 239 169 132 277 305 312 324 310 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 162 158 153 150 142 134 128 124 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 139 133 129 130 123 113 104 99 100 99 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.0 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 52 52 46 38 37 44 48 48 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 15 17 16 13 11 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 54 61 63 55 17 -30 -29 -9 -11 -21 -46 200 MB DIV 36 17 7 7 21 -12 -42 -28 5 -17 -7 4 15 700-850 TADV 8 3 -8 -2 -5 0 8 8 6 7 -2 8 15 LAND (KM) 1240 1300 1359 1421 1484 1542 1539 1550 1389 1261 1218 1180 1114 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.2 28.0 29.0 30.4 32.0 33.2 33.7 34.0 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.1 55.7 55.3 54.9 54.9 56.1 58.0 59.3 59.4 59.2 59.4 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 4 5 9 10 8 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 24 22 22 15 12 1 3 16 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 26. 30. 28. 25. 20. 17. 14. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)