* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 46 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 46 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 43 43 42 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 16 19 14 5 8 4 3 8 7 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -4 -6 -7 -7 -6 -4 0 4 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 349 351 9 13 22 260 238 261 189 222 283 328 7 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 158 158 157 156 154 156 156 156 157 155 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 70 68 61 56 53 49 49 44 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 62 72 70 51 51 41 19 7 9 50 76 200 MB DIV 119 89 88 74 60 17 10 20 25 20 47 25 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1741 1749 1761 1762 1753 1766 1823 1933 2055 2190 2299 2392 2179 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.2 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.3 122.0 122.6 123.8 125.0 126.4 127.8 129.5 131.3 133.0 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 33 27 24 24 24 23 24 28 27 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 19. 18. 18. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##