* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 108 109 108 110 112 110 101 93 81 66 51 V (KT) LAND 105 108 108 109 108 110 112 110 101 93 68 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 105 111 112 110 109 109 111 108 97 81 56 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 5 1 6 13 12 27 25 29 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 15 19 16 9 -2 7 7 3 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 16 5 11 351 258 276 277 271 254 223 215 213 233 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.4 27.8 26.5 24.8 23.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 163 164 165 159 144 135 119 102 94 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 141 144 147 142 127 117 101 86 79 77 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.2 -49.9 -48.7 -48.6 -49.0 -49.6 -49.3 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 61 65 67 66 62 54 48 48 57 63 63 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 32 34 38 39 39 42 41 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 53 66 87 93 101 149 170 236 215 160 119 154 159 200 MB DIV 13 35 53 45 53 88 86 95 55 66 49 68 24 700-850 TADV 5 4 11 10 6 20 12 51 82 85 75 15 -8 LAND (KM) 348 321 293 305 321 499 536 537 263 67 -4 -85 -77 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.6 23.8 25.5 27.5 30.0 32.9 35.1 36.8 37.9 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.8 74.2 74.5 74.8 74.8 74.7 74.8 74.8 75.3 76.0 76.5 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 9 11 13 13 10 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 57 44 27 56 55 21 22 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -17. -26. -33. -40. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 7. 8. 8. 10. 9. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 7. 5. -4. -12. -24. -39. -54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 28( 62) 29( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 15( 19) 13( 30) 9( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)