* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 48 46 42 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 48 46 42 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 36 36 38 36 32 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 23 25 25 16 14 11 40 41 32 26 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -1 -2 -5 6 3 5 2 10 12 7 SHEAR DIR 253 250 241 230 231 185 127 243 292 306 314 293 282 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 159 158 154 147 139 129 127 128 119 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 137 135 133 132 127 120 110 106 106 100 84 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.3 -52.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 51 43 44 48 55 54 52 52 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 18 17 14 11 9 9 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 55 67 61 36 -2 -39 75 98 10 -41 -43 200 MB DIV 5 9 17 23 0 -8 -42 4 21 14 18 -1 15 700-850 TADV 2 -3 0 0 8 8 9 8 23 54 56 82 95 LAND (KM) 1246 1298 1349 1390 1432 1463 1480 1428 1156 931 737 599 482 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.5 28.4 29.7 31.5 33.7 35.7 37.6 39.7 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.5 56.2 56.0 55.9 56.5 58.1 59.7 61.0 61.5 61.5 60.3 57.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 7 10 12 11 10 10 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 23 21 15 14 2 2 11 14 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -7. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 18. 16. 12. 7. -2. -9. -20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED