* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 10/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 19 20 21 21 20 20 19 19 20 23 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 19 20 21 21 20 20 19 19 20 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 12 13 14 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -2 -2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 242 229 230 251 247 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 169 167 166 164 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 66 64 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -23 -8 2 10 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 15 17 11 27 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 -1 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 198 232 275 301 344 431 550 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.9 105.7 106.5 107.3 108.5 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 44 45 50 60 61 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 10/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 10/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##