* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 38 41 47 51 56 59 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 38 41 47 51 56 59 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 38 43 51 58 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 19 21 13 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -6 -7 -8 -4 -6 -4 0 4 1 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 358 9 14 29 41 271 17 54 94 57 44 354 1 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 155 157 156 156 157 159 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 70 64 62 63 65 69 73 73 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 69 68 64 60 55 53 41 36 33 38 41 200 MB DIV 96 82 66 64 58 20 62 39 55 39 72 34 68 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1808 1823 1837 1893 1953 2106 2275 2393 2479 2574 2677 2556 2432 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 4 6 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 38 31 28 25 21 21 22 23 23 23 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 22. 26. 31. 34. 33. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##