* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 111 113 113 115 113 104 95 81 70 62 50 V (KT) LAND 110 111 111 113 113 115 113 104 95 81 70 62 50 V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 110 109 109 109 111 104 89 72 59 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 4 5 8 16 21 28 32 34 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 16 17 14 10 4 5 7 7 6 0 7 9 SHEAR DIR 3 16 14 10 320 288 303 274 264 237 219 222 240 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.2 27.8 26.8 26.5 25.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 164 165 166 161 141 135 120 116 106 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 140 147 147 149 145 126 116 98 95 91 80 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -49.7 -48.5 -48.5 -48.7 -49.2 -49.4 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 66 66 63 54 46 57 62 62 61 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 34 34 33 38 40 39 40 38 39 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 68 83 89 102 123 147 183 240 166 124 138 129 133 200 MB DIV 46 42 26 51 75 72 94 49 73 59 74 56 14 700-850 TADV 6 11 12 7 11 17 22 68 80 68 58 8 -25 LAND (KM) 300 266 233 271 321 522 635 540 275 163 144 121 76 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 22.9 22.6 23.2 23.8 25.5 27.6 30.5 33.7 35.5 35.8 37.4 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 73.9 74.1 74.5 74.8 74.1 73.7 73.8 73.7 74.1 74.3 74.2 72.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 7 7 10 13 15 13 6 4 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 37 57 26 59 55 27 13 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -29. -38. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 7. 8. 5. 5. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 3. -6. -15. -29. -40. -48. -60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 31( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 29( 47) 26( 61) 23( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)