* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 48 47 44 39 33 26 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 48 47 44 39 33 26 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 36 36 35 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 30 36 29 13 14 13 37 35 32 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -5 -5 2 2 5 2 4 6 10 10 SHEAR DIR 254 242 234 234 228 159 149 277 297 315 321 336 318 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 159 155 151 149 144 134 127 123 122 120 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 136 132 129 128 124 113 106 102 102 103 97 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -53.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 53 47 40 39 45 50 47 47 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 17 18 16 12 9 7 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 64 67 56 14 -37 -52 5 -26 -56 -91 -103 200 MB DIV 18 28 20 -2 -21 -59 -31 -16 0 -31 5 -29 -29 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 4 4 6 17 14 48 67 106 LAND (KM) 1314 1396 1478 1532 1587 1598 1608 1429 1245 1163 1048 989 887 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.9 29.0 30.3 32.0 33.8 35.0 36.4 37.8 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 55.3 54.7 54.4 54.2 55.2 56.8 58.2 58.3 57.6 56.7 54.1 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 8 10 9 8 7 10 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 21 19 18 11 5 4 12 9 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 18. 17. 14. 9. 3. -4. -13. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/01/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)