* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 37 40 44 44 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 37 40 44 44 46 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 41 44 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 14 5 1 3 7 8 8 11 12 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -6 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 8 9 23 34 294 24 33 21 9 4 354 335 345 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 158 160 159 159 158 159 157 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 71 69 62 63 59 60 61 67 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 82 83 76 74 61 49 39 34 30 32 18 9 17 200 MB DIV 77 52 49 51 37 60 29 11 23 50 35 33 51 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1951 1960 1972 2015 2060 2259 2498 2637 2569 2510 2439 2372 2292 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 10 12 10 6 3 4 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 23 20 18 19 25 29 32 33 37 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 363 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##