* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 116 118 118 113 103 91 80 69 59 50 V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 116 118 118 113 103 91 80 69 59 50 V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 114 112 110 111 111 98 82 69 58 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 6 7 7 14 20 29 21 28 33 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 18 14 11 11 -2 2 9 7 7 6 6 10 SHEAR DIR 15 18 12 340 318 299 296 276 251 229 205 218 228 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.3 25.4 23.3 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 167 164 151 138 135 128 109 94 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 142 144 148 148 133 119 114 108 92 81 74 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9 -49.1 -48.8 -48.6 -48.9 -50.1 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 66 65 58 48 45 50 59 62 52 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 34 34 32 34 37 39 41 37 37 37 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 84 96 96 113 128 148 190 193 139 101 101 107 33 200 MB DIV 41 42 54 75 97 83 80 57 44 19 65 48 12 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 6 18 12 42 79 55 39 34 -6 -16 LAND (KM) 264 276 289 340 394 589 666 493 368 242 150 83 44 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.4 24.0 24.5 26.4 29.0 31.2 33.1 35.1 37.3 39.2 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.4 74.5 74.7 74.9 74.2 73.7 73.4 73.0 73.3 73.9 73.5 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 8 11 12 11 9 11 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 49 36 51 85 48 22 18 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -25. -35. -44. -50. -55. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. -2. -12. -24. -35. -46. -56. -65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 32( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 37 43( 64) 50( 82) 6( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)