* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 50 48 44 39 32 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 50 48 44 39 32 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 42 42 42 42 40 35 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 32 27 18 15 15 27 35 39 47 53 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 -8 6 -2 3 0 5 4 7 8 SHEAR DIR 238 229 230 226 195 135 165 283 307 314 305 292 278 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.3 26.8 22.4 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 155 153 151 147 140 132 126 128 124 92 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 134 131 130 127 121 113 106 107 104 82 69 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -53.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 48 44 40 43 52 57 57 56 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 17 15 12 9 8 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 67 60 45 3 -25 10 121 84 85 101 111 200 MB DIV 44 19 -1 -18 -27 -29 -30 19 3 9 51 44 64 700-850 TADV 1 -2 3 3 4 6 7 13 30 48 71 93 128 LAND (KM) 1365 1455 1546 1568 1594 1579 1521 1278 1052 870 649 427 122 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.5 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.7 31.1 32.9 35.0 36.8 39.3 42.3 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 54.7 54.1 54.4 54.6 56.4 58.2 59.8 60.1 60.2 60.0 57.7 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 7 6 8 10 11 11 9 11 14 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 21 18 14 6 6 2 12 6 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -5. -9. -14. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 13. 9. 4. -3. -12. -25. -39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/01/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)