* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 23 24 25 26 27 26 25 24 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 23 24 25 26 27 26 25 24 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 28 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 7 6 3 1 2 2 3 8 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -5 -5 -6 1 7 7 6 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 350 342 265 254 291 307 24 227 230 266 304 283 268 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 155 152 150 152 151 151 151 150 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 64 58 54 50 46 42 41 38 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 70 55 46 38 29 11 5 37 41 50 41 200 MB DIV 54 53 46 36 20 37 8 14 20 6 6 -18 2 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1727 1747 1770 1823 1878 1975 1968 1993 2042 2074 2052 2052 2067 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 2 0 2 2 1 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##