* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 115 113 112 107 96 87 74 66 59 54 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 115 113 112 107 96 87 74 66 59 54 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 112 109 108 109 106 93 79 67 59 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 8 9 10 17 24 23 27 30 38 37 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 18 14 13 6 4 4 10 7 6 1 6 6 SHEAR DIR 28 35 350 305 291 295 277 268 241 231 228 231 239 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.1 22.7 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 164 165 165 147 137 134 132 115 91 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 144 144 147 149 130 117 112 111 97 80 71 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.0 -49.0 -48.6 -49.7 -50.4 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 62 56 48 50 57 61 53 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 33 36 40 38 38 36 37 39 46 850 MB ENV VOR 88 99 111 117 138 160 194 193 166 139 140 59 41 200 MB DIV 30 42 64 77 61 94 61 74 33 56 23 9 -1 700-850 TADV 15 9 11 21 19 25 53 58 57 48 16 -38 -69 LAND (KM) 244 291 341 406 471 663 635 462 397 364 274 163 203 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.1 27.0 29.9 32.2 33.9 35.9 38.3 40.2 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.4 73.4 73.0 72.6 72.0 71.8 71.6 70.2 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 8 12 13 10 9 11 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 59 52 20 50 52 57 43 21 14 19 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -25. -35. -44. -50. -55. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 4. 4. 1. 2. 3. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -8. -19. -28. -41. -49. -56. -61. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 30( 66) 30( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 47 51( 74) 26( 81) 6( 82) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED