* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 44 43 41 53 69 62 59 60 63 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 44 43 41 53 69 62 59 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 39 39 51 62 59 55 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 26 19 10 14 9 14 23 24 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -5 0 7 10 3 2 4 9 10 4 SHEAR DIR 227 232 226 210 185 122 46 331 344 342 347 325 147 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 154 152 151 151 147 143 137 132 126 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 131 129 129 128 127 122 119 115 110 104 109 111 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 51 48 47 49 55 60 58 58 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 15 13 10 7 21 39 36 37 40 46 850 MB ENV VOR 71 64 58 40 13 -14 -39 -56 -59 -51 69 56 -105 200 MB DIV 24 -2 -21 -25 -31 -34 -26 -3 0 10 19 19 0 700-850 TADV -1 8 8 7 4 1 -4 0 0 6 2 6 9 LAND (KM) 1489 1524 1560 1570 1581 1558 1565 1638 1656 1514 1353 1377 1457 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 7 7 6 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 23 21 14 9 7 2 1 9 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. 4. 21. 18. 18. 19. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 18. 34. 27. 24. 25. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/02/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)