* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 47 52 54 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 47 52 54 56 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 36 41 46 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 7 9 12 7 3 6 1 0 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 240 235 227 213 169 168 148 71 70 91 290 256 248 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 152 153 154 155 153 152 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 63 65 68 71 77 77 79 74 75 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 97 107 110 106 106 105 109 105 87 83 95 117 124 200 MB DIV 70 83 77 61 53 86 66 88 67 85 59 73 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 4 5 3 3 7 LAND (KM) 682 671 661 658 654 658 665 651 586 476 315 148 24 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.8 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 157.7 157.7 157.8 157.8 157.9 158.3 158.8 159.1 158.9 158.3 157.3 156.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 38 39 40 40 43 47 47 44 37 56 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 27. 29. 31. 30. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##