* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 32 41 49 57 63 69 78 82 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 32 41 49 57 63 69 78 82 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 42 49 57 66 75 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 6 9 17 19 18 12 4 10 11 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 -3 0 0 3 11 4 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 212 280 233 198 156 151 119 131 117 191 174 170 120 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 160 160 161 160 160 163 162 161 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 56 55 60 61 67 67 65 60 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 19 22 24 25 25 27 31 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 120 129 135 128 129 142 161 186 194 201 193 198 187 200 MB DIV 104 73 66 47 56 68 75 47 60 66 39 36 -6 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1682 1683 1684 1706 1727 1802 1865 1861 1771 1618 1485 1437 1407 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 12.8 12.0 11.7 12.5 14.0 15.6 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 172.8 172.9 172.9 173.2 173.4 173.8 173.9 173.6 173.2 172.6 172.2 172.2 172.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 4 3 2 6 8 7 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 46 46 45 48 50 49 48 45 47 52 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 10. 13. 13. 16. 22. 23. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 7. 16. 24. 32. 38. 44. 53. 57. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##