* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 26 27 30 29 27 25 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 26 27 30 29 27 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 28 28 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 6 5 7 10 9 9 16 18 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -7 -8 -1 3 5 9 8 7 7 5 SHEAR DIR 333 270 279 326 342 23 12 1 8 345 357 5 27 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 156 155 154 155 156 159 158 157 155 151 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 56 54 51 47 45 42 41 41 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 73 66 50 37 32 30 6 -1 18 32 37 63 57 200 MB DIV 52 37 24 14 19 0 -11 1 14 -10 0 -19 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -8 LAND (KM) 1705 1735 1768 1820 1874 2015 2163 2314 2395 2216 2026 1828 1605 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.6 126.4 128.0 129.7 131.4 133.2 135.0 136.8 138.6 140.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 25 23 24 27 33 29 27 28 28 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 2. 0. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##