* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 117 117 116 111 100 91 83 73 62 54 44 V (KT) LAND 115 115 117 117 116 111 100 91 83 73 62 54 44 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 111 110 109 109 102 88 75 66 59 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 9 15 23 32 23 25 20 31 33 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 16 14 8 -2 5 3 6 10 11 2 6 6 SHEAR DIR 3 353 325 299 285 287 277 244 239 212 222 225 235 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.6 27.7 27.5 27.8 26.6 24.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 166 166 161 146 133 130 134 122 102 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 148 150 145 129 114 109 112 104 91 76 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -49.0 -49.1 -49.0 -49.4 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 63 60 55 54 53 53 55 55 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 33 34 36 37 38 39 37 35 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 97 117 117 142 151 173 188 156 124 123 142 146 130 200 MB DIV 31 58 72 76 71 71 42 53 28 74 43 52 69 700-850 TADV 5 16 30 19 14 36 66 55 45 23 14 22 -9 LAND (KM) 240 294 348 451 554 736 668 575 571 596 465 341 313 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.9 25.8 27.9 30.5 32.7 34.4 36.2 38.2 40.7 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.1 72.7 71.5 70.6 69.8 68.9 67.4 63.8 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 11 13 13 11 9 11 15 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 62 30 26 51 69 56 28 21 15 18 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -13. -25. -36. -44. -50. -54. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -8. -6. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -4. -15. -24. -32. -42. -53. -61. -71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 31( 68) 29( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 41 46( 68) 5( 70) 2( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)